Tropical Storm Gustav:Hurricane Gustav,TS Gustav 2008
Tropical Storm Gustav:Hurricane Gustav,TS Gustav 2008 – Tropical Storm Gustav is currently doing damages on Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) with winds of 60 miles (96 kilometers) per hour.Hurricane Gustav according to the National Hurricane Center is at 180 miles south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and was moving northwest at about 14 miles per hour as of 5 p.m. today.TS Gustav will head to Florida by tomorrow.Here are the latest update of tropical depression 7/Tropical Storm Gustav/Hurricane Gustav:
Tropical Storm Gustav -
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 71.0W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB
AFTER ITS RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY…THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING…PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER.
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 67 KT.
USING A 75 PERCENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS APPROPRIATE FOR THE 925 MB FLIGHT ALTITUDE GIVES 50 KT FOR THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
ASSUMING THE CURRENTLY LESS-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS MERELY TEMPORARY…STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV WILL OBVIOUSLY BE A STRONG FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH LAND. INTERESTINGLY…THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAIL TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST…315/12. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST…WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE TO THE LEFT OF THIS NHC FORECAST.
NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS…AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.
THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT GUSTAV IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.3N 71.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.2N 72.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 73.3W 65 KT…INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.4N 74.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 20.2N 75.5W 65 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W 55 KT…INLAND
96HR VT 29/1800Z 22.0N 79.0W 50 KT…INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT…INLAND
That’s all we have for now on the Tropical Storm Gustav:Hurricane Gustav,TS Gustav 2008.
